Published Analysis
“The Intelligence Gap: Why It Exists…. What Would Actually Work”
AVENTEL Research Paper · December 2025
Examining the persistent gap between intelligence requirements and intelligence delivery in disaster and crisis environments. Why traditional approaches consistently fail and what practical frameworks grounded in operational reality would actually work.
“The Intelligence Gap: Disasters Don’t Have to Be Catastrophes”
AVENTEL Research Paper · November 2025
How properly structured intelligence architecture transforms disaster response from reactive crisis management into proactive risk mitigation—turning potential catastrophes into manageable events.
“The Risk Matrix: Tool, Tactic, or Scapegoat?”
AVENTEL Mythconception Series · November 2025
Challenging the ubiquitous risk matrix—examining when this tool provides genuine analytical value versus when it becomes compliance theatre that obscures rather than illuminates actual risk understanding.
“The Black Swan Myth: Why Most Disasters are Grey Rhinos”
AVENTEL Mythconception Series · October 2025
Deconstructing the popular “black swan” narrative to reveal that most disasters are actually predictable, visible threats that organisations choose to ignore – grey rhinos charging straight at us while we look the other way.
“The AI-Security Paradox: Promise, Peril, and the Path Forward“
AVENTEL Research Paper · September 2025
How AI extends security capability whilst introducing new vulnerabilities – and why human judgement remains essential for trust and strategy.
“Human Domain Analysis: A Tool for Human-Centric Risk Management in Fragile Contexts“
ISRM · June 2025
A framework for understanding human systems, cultural dynamics, and social networks in complex risk environments.
“The Undercurrent of Water and Global (In)stability“
AVENTEL Research Paper · May 2025
Examining water security as a critical driver of geopolitical instability and conflict.
“The Human Element of Insider Risk: When People Share, Steal and Spy”
AVENTEL Research Paper · April 2025
Understanding the human motivations and vulnerabilities that drive insider threats.
“Hybrid Warfare: Blurred Lines and the Changing Face of Global Conflict“
AVENTEL Research Paper · March 2025
Analysing the convergence of conventional and unconventional tactics in modern conflict.
“From Ideology to Action: The Pathway to Violent Extremism”
AVENTEL Research Paper · January 2025
Tracing the radicalisation process from ideological exposure to violent action.
2024
“Information Disorder: The Weaponisation of Words“
AVENTEL Research Paper · October 2024
How information manipulation and disinformation campaigns shape perception and undermine trust.
“OSINT: Beyond Intelligence Lite“
AVENTEL Research Paper · September 2024
Elevating open-source intelligence from supplementary tool to strategic capability.
“Violent Crimes in Places of Higher Education”
AVENTEL Research Paper · March 2024
Analysing security threats and violence prevention in campus environments.
“The Security-Development Nexus: Bridging Security Risk Management”
AVENTEL Research Paper · February 2024
Integrating security considerations into development programming and humanitarian response.
2019–2022
“Make-Safe Uganda: Private Security Sector Development”
RFI Institute White Paper
May 2022
“The Devil’s in the Details: Emergency Evacuation Procedures – Kabul, 2021”
RFI Institute White Paper
October 2021
“The Illicit Diamond Trade in Sub Saharan Africa”
RFI Institute Report (Open-Source Analysis)
May 2021
“Wildlife Crime: Changing the Narrative”
RFI Institute White Paper
September 2019
2014–2016
“The Human Dimension: Rehabilitating the Human Terrain System – a people-centred approach to International Policing”
Security and Risk Management: Critical Reflections and International Perspectives (Vol. 1, 2016) ed. M. Petrigh
November 2016
“Democratic Policing in Security Sector Reform”
SSR Resource Centre, Centre for Security Governance
2016
“Shades of Grey in the Thin Blue Line: Determinates of Police Integrity”
Building Police Integrity: A Post-Conflict Perspective (ed. J.L. Hovens, 2014), EU-PST Policy Journal
2014
“Police: Society’s Moral Compass – Ethics, Conduct and Human Rights”
INPROL Publications
2014